This being my first article I thought it would be nice to give somewhat of a brief bio of myself. I am an avid Cardinals fan born and raised, that being said I will try to bar bias if I can, but from what I can tell most sportswriter's do have their own bias.
I was born in 1987 in Mid-Missouri, and I have no love for any other sports team coming out of Missouri other than the Cardinals, who were actively playing in the 87 series when I was being birthed by my mother. I was at the game when McGwire hit home run numbers 69 and 70 , and game 6 of the 2011 WS on my 24th birthday, which I am grateful for because McGwire did juice (he had the balls to admit it). I am an active duty service member and that is my profession, I have no major journalism training or background, but I have been told I know my crap and was asked to write these articles by my friend.
If I am wrong I have no issues taking feedback my email address is [email protected], but be warned I like to argue. Now given most sportswriter's are pretty terrible to begin with in the grand scheme of journalists; I do like to crunch stats and look at the big picture of things, anyhow hopefully
Anyhow these are some of my predictions for this next season, which are not set in stone, just because I say something before Spring training starts does not make it happen sadly.
The minor league system over there in Japan is worse than what the college system here in America was for pitchers who were abused with workload in both IP and pitches thrown per game, and frequency of use. Pitchers break, and not all of them come back as the same pitcher and I think Tanaka is closer to that breaking point. Furthermore he has a low 90’s fastball that is flat and is going to get nailed hard; Granted he has a good slider and a good splitter, even those won't have the same effect.
Looking at the stats from when they played in Japan to their stats after coming to America to play,
Darvish, Irabu, Ishii, Matsuzaka, Yoshii, Kuroda, and Nomo all saw their K/9 go down and their HR/9, BB/9 and ERA go up enough to be worthy of mentioning. Hell Darvish only had 277 K’s last season which was one of the few times he placed in any major category for a top 10 spot in pitching stats last season, but 55 (nearly 1/5th of those came from the Astros, and in 2012 he barely broke 200 K’s, which is impressive, all the same, Darvish is paid less than 10 million a year right now so that is all fine and dandy.
Tanaka is looking at a nine figure deal and will probably get it, and personally I hope it is the Angels or the Yankees that get him, they both desperately need pitching and have the money to spend for it and both teams spend their money poorly to begin with. Tanaka is not an ace, he is a 4th or 5th end of the rotation kind of guy at best
I am excited to see this guy play this year and if you were smart and have room on your fantasy team for a rookie I would take him and hold onto him, eventually he will get you a lot of points.
This will be the last season the Astros continue their streak of losing seasons. They have the guys behind the scenes that they have hired from the Cardinal's organization that built the Cardinal's farm system; managing a lot of their draft picks from the past two years and creating a better talent development structure in their minor league teams.
When they finally decide to buy some talent they will have more than enough money to bring in some veteran all stars to guide a young core to the playoffs. I would not be shocked to see them win 70 games this season and have a positive winning percentage for the month of September if they decide to call anyone up.
They have no other teams within a good distance to compete against and a fan base hungry for any kind of championship. Just like the Pirates went from having a lot of empty seats in April of 2013 to packed house by the end of July 2013, Seattle can get something going and shock a lot of people.
Given the Braves have been downgraded, on top of making some bad contracts and having a lousy policy with their money management ( they could afford more but have a cutoff mark that they impose on themselves), they will probably be the best competition in that division. The Marlins have money and a lot of young talent from when they gutted their team for prospects in 2012. It is only a matter of time before they make it back to the playoffs, and given the lifespan of that franchise with the success they have had in the postseason of the last 20 years ( most world series won by any team in that division) it is not that big of a stretch.
The Mets are rebuilding somewhat intelligently and will only get better. The Phillies still have a bulk of their payroll tied up in pitching and lack an offense and reaped their farm system when they built up said pitching, until they get out of their win now mentality and build an actual team again they won't go anywhere.
Then you have the Nats, the most overrated team in baseball in 2013 save maybe the Blue Jays or the Angels. What happened to all of that "talent" they had last season. Harper choked, Strasburg was so-so and had it not been for Zimmerman who put forth a good case for a Cy Young run they would not have broken a .500 record, but given where they have the money invested and the talent they have on the way I cannot say they have a shot next year.
Yeah I know every sportswriter on ESPN and your mainstream sports outlets dry-hump the hell out of the Coastal teams and Detroit every season, but guess what I am not one of those guys with my head shoved up my own ( fill in the blank). I did call the Nationals winning that division in 2012 and placed an actual bet on them that paid out pretty well, all the same the division was a joke that season too.
For the record Boston and the Cardinals got little to no love in the preseason last year, so go ahead and call me wrong. I called the Blue Jays, Miami 2012. 2.0 all last season and I like the fact Albert Pujols got to watch the postseason from his couch again last year. Spending money does not always mean a division win or a trip to the World Series, or even a league championship series. The Marlins will turn a lot of heads this season.
My list of 10 teams to make the playoffs in no order of any kind, and remember they still have to play the games and win them first:
-Cardinals
-Indians
-Mariners
-Braves
-Reds
-Dodgers
-Rays
-A's
-Tigers
-Diamondbacks
Boston lost too many free agents and will barely miss it. Baltimore does not have quality pitching which cost them last year. The Pirates have holes in their offense and I don't think their bullpen will be as good this coming season. The Nationals are not as talented as everyone would have you believe and the Giants do well in even seasons but they have too many questions with their rotation and offense.
The Yankees are still in somewhat of a rebuilding mode and have not signed a 3rd baseman who hasn't been suspended for roids. The Angels do not have the pitching and the Royals are going to be close considering their offense is getting better but their pitching is getting slightly worse.
If your team was not mentioned they will probably have a losing record next year sadly. That said, the Rockies need ground ball pitching pitchers and their players to stay healthy while the Padres need to get better offensively.
Teams that have a valid shot at winning 100+ games:
I cannot see any other team having a valid shot at 100 games either because their division will be more competitive or due to personnel losses making it so they wont repeat what they did last year. Losing Colon will be a loss for the A's, he had a great season last year. Boston lost Drew, Ellsbury and I do not wish bad luck on them but they do have players that have had health issues. Detroit has been the most talented team for the better part of the last 4 years, so I've been told and despite all that talent in a weak division they have yet to pull it off. I am curious to see what happens when they give up some offense for some defense though.
The Pirates have holes in their lineup as do the Reds. The Braves won't replace McCann and led the NL is striking out last year while their whole division will be a little bit more competitive at the bottom. The Nationals really are not that great, it is like beating a dead horse. I would say the NL West will be more competitive too next year.
I will revisit this at the end of the season before the playoffs and hold myself accountable, like I said I am not a sports writer by trade, I am an active duty serviceman. That being said if I could talk all day about baseball with any of you, you would probably by a little more into what i'm saying.
Mike asked me to help him cover baseball this season and that is what I intend to do. I plan on doing power rankings weekly for the top 15, and all 30 teams every 36 games. I will also start doing bi-monthly division rankings because believe it or not if I told you Texas was a crappy team last year most of you would look at me like I was an idiot. Truth is Texas feasted on a bad division wherein interdivision games they went 53-23 ( next team to win the most interdivision games only won 47 in any other division and that was Detroit and Atlanta, two other teams that feasted on a bad division but not to the extent Texas did. Then in outer-division play Texas was only 38-49. How is a team 30 games above 500 out of their own division then go 11 games down including game 163, under 500 out of their division. makes no sense of any kind to me.
Outliers happen and they rarely repeat rather successful or unsuccessful in baseball. Other that I might take random looks in all teams and try to come up with the "why" a team is performing however it is they are, rather they be the best team in the game or the worst. I will take things into account of strength of division, players that are there for the money compared to players there to win, run differential. I will have red flag indicators for a postseason watch ) for example I toss out teams with losing interleague records 90% of the rime, teams that cant win on the road, teams that strike out the most, teams that give up the most homeruns, teams that cant win outside of their division etc etc.)
This will have a 6 division spreadsheet that accounts for all 30 teams.
I truly do love that game and do not like any other sports. I have a math oriented mind and can be a bit of a nerd. But I look for trends from season to season and go with what I see, I don't care who spends money, I don't care who did what last year once a new season starts, it all gets thrown out the window on opening day unless you are the Astros from the last three seasons. Trades happen, injuries happen, crazy streaks happen, some middle class pitcher throws a no-hitter, it is baseball, you never know and every day is new.
2014 will be a new year for the sport with instant replays, hopefully for the better and it may take 205 years before it becomes a better system, but it can't be any worse than a game deciding blown call. We can all be thankful Ozzie Guillen is no longer a manager, I assure you that guy would be the biggest abuser of the replay system by a landslide. I hope everyone who made it this far has enjoyed my predictions! Only about 10 more weeks to go before opening day!
This article was written by Robert Jenkins
NFL Championship Round Predictions
San Francisco 49ers Vs. Seattle Seahawks
This is simple and easy, the Seahawks will blow out the 49ers. The 49ers had two tough physical games already and a third is going to wear them down.
49ers 7 Seahawks 35
New England Patriots Vs. Denver Broncos
Manning gets the records, Brady gets the rings.
Patriots 24 Broncos 21